Here, I’ll explain what I’d do with UDG shares now. I’ll also reveal another healthcare stock I’d like to buy that I think could be a bid target.

UDG shares: I’d sit tight

Private equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice has made the cash offer for UDG Healthcare, valuing the business at £2.6bn. It’s been recommended by UDG’s board, so it’s likely to be accepted, unless a competing bid comes along.

At the time of writing, UDG shares are trading at 1,023p exactly. This suggests to me the market is confident the bid will go through. Usually, shares in a company that’s being taken private trade slightly below the takeover price, to reflect the risk that the deal might fail.

Another possibility is that a higher bid could emerge. UDG’s reliable cash flows and US bias makes it an attractive prospect for private equity, as the business should be able to support higher debt levels and fund generous dividends.

Today’s offer values UDG Healthcare shares at 29 times earnings for the 12 months to 31 March. That seems like a full price to me, but I think there might be room for a cash-rich buyer to go a little higher.

If I owned UDG Healthcare stock, I’d keep holding after today’s news. I think the takeover is almost certain to succeed, so the payout should be safe. In the meantime, there’s a small chance a higher bid will come along.

The next healthcare stock I’d buy

One healthcare business I’ve been watching for a while is FTSE 250 medical product company ConvaTec (LSE: CTEC). This business produces medical products needed to care for people with chronic conditions. Examples include colostomy bags and advanced wound care treatments.

ConvaTec only floated on the London market in 2016 and had a slightly rocky start to life as a public company. But things have improved since then and the company is now starting to look like the kind of business I want to invest in.

Firstly, ConvaTec’s products tend to be essential, repeat purchases. This should generate attractive recurring revenue and give good visibility on earnings.

This business is also quite profitable, with an operating margin of 12% in 2020. I can see room for this to improve, supporting strong cash flows.

These are the positives I look for in an investment. But they’re also popular with private equity buyers, as we’ve seen today with UDG shares.

Of course, there’s no guarantee ConvaTec will attract a bid. Any deal would have to win the approval of Danish pharma giant Novo Nordisk, which owns 20% of ConvaTec stock.

Another consideration is that ConvaTec shares already look fully-priced, on 25 times 2021 forecast earnings. That’s a little more than I’d usually pay for a stock.

I’m tempted by ConvaTec’s strong growth outlook and good cash generation. It’s definitely a stock I’m considering for my portfolio.

Considerable appeal

Medical products and technologies company ConvaTec (LSE: CTEC) is a FTSE 250 share I think has considerable appeal. For one thing, it’s a geographically diversified global business. For another, it has leading market positions in the areas it focuses on. Namely, advanced wound care, ostomy care, continence & critical care, and infusion care.

CTEC reported a “strong” performance in the three months to 31 March. Group organic revenue increased 6.7%. And all its business segments contributed to the growth. In addition, management said it “executed effectively” on its strategic transformation, as it targets sustainable and profitable growth.

Trading at 25 times trailing earnings, the market is pricing CTEC for successful delivery of its strategy. Nevertheless, there’s a risk the “significant number of strategic initiatives” the company is pursuing won’t deliver the anticipated growth. If so, the shares could de-rate to a lower earnings multiple. However, I found last week’s update highly encouraging, and I think CTEC could be a good long-term investment for me.

FTSE 250 shares #2

Howden Joinery (LSE: HWDN) is the UK’s leading trade supplier of kitchens. I think its scale and specialisation are competitive advantages. It still has growth to go for in the UK, but is also expanding from a low base in France and Belgium.

Last week’s trading update was for the 16 weeks to 17 April. It was no surprise to see massive increases in revenue compared to the same period last year, which was hit hard by the first Covid lockdown. However, I was impressed by comparisons with the pre-pandemic period in 2019. UK revenue increased 13% (or 9% on a same-depot basis). European revenue increased 38% (or 20% on a same-depot basis).

There are a number of risks to HWDN’s prospects. These include the cyclicality of the construction sector, notably residential housing. Also, the expansion into Europe is still at too early a stage to be sure it’ll be a success. On balance though, I think this could be another good long-term investment for me. HWDN is trading at 32 times last year’s pandemic-depressed earnings.

FTSE 250 shares #3

I’m a big fan of the power of consumer goods brands. PZ Cussons (LSE: PZC) has a strong stable of them. They include Carex, Imperial Leather and St Tropez. The company also has attractive international diversification across both developed and emerging markets.

Last week, PZC reported a 4.7% increase in revenue (at constant currency) for the 13 weeks to 27 February. I liked that all regions grew revenue and profit. This continued the “renewed momentum” in the business after a long period of struggling for growth under its previous chief executive.

PZC has been investing heavily behind its brands in the initial phase of the new CEO’s strategy to return to sustainable profit growth. As it’s still early days, there’s no guarantee the recent momentum will continue. As with CTEC, the shares could de-rate if the strategy doesn’t deliver the growth implied by PZC’s rating of 21 times trailing earnings. However, I like the company’s brands and the new CEO’s approach. As such, this is another FTSE 250 share I think could be a good long-term investment for me.

The FTSE bods look at the indexes every three months to see if any changes are needed. Right now, there are three FTSE 250 stocks I think have prospects of being promoted to the FTSE 100 during the course of 2021.

ITV (LSE: ITV) will be familiar to most readers. Medical devices group ConvaTec (LSE: CTEC) and veterinary drugs firm Dechra Pharmaceuticals (LSE: DPH) will probably be less familiar.

Blue-chip bounce back

ITV had been a longstanding member of the FTSE 100 before crashing out in last September’s review. Having started 2020 at 150p, the ITV share price had slumped to 57p by the review date.

The Covid-19 pandemic hit the company hard. Shuttered studios and a slump in advertising meant its two main sources of revenue plummeted. However, investors have turned cautiously optimistic since September. We’ve seen a revival in the share price to a current 107p.

As vaccines are rolled out, production and advertising should begin to recover. If this happens, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the ITV share price continue to head back towards 150p. And the company return to the FTSE 100 index.

Of course, if the vaccines rollout doesn’t carry through to a recovery in production and advertising, the ITV share price may not rise.

A lurking FTSE 250 stock

The ConvaTec share price ended 2020 in the same 200p area as it started the year. Mind, it was a volatile journey. The shares briefly went sub-150p in the spring market crash. At today’s 202p, the company lurks outside the FTSE 100.

ConvaTec is a global medical devices group focused on therapies for the management of chronic conditions. The increasing prevalence of such conditions provides a tailwind for the company.

After wholesale boardroom changes a couple of years ago, management is making good progress towards realising ConvaTec’s full potential for profitable growth. Provided progress continues, I think the company could potentially make it into the FTSE 100 index this year.

But this may not happen if progress stalls. For example, by poor execution of the strategy for profitable growth.

Another FTSE 250 stock in contention

The Dechra Pharmaceuticals share price ended 2020 some 17% higher than it started the year. And it’s still rising. At  3,690p, it’s up 7% so far in 2021. After the strong performance, Dechra’s joined ConvaTec within shouting distance of the FTSE 100.

According to the company, the majority of its veterinary products (sold worldwide) are used to treat medical conditions for which there’s no other effective solution. Or have a clinical or dosing advantage over competitor products. The company is growing fast, both organically and by acquisitions.

Dechra’s chief executive has steered the firm for 20 years. Provided he continues to increase the value of the business — and the share price follows suit — I think this is another FTSE 250 stock that could potentially ascend to the FTSE 100 before the year is out.

There’s always risk though, including that Dechra could make a value-destroying, rather than value-enhancing, acquisition. In which case, the share price could fall rather than rise.

My three FTSE 250 recovery stocks

None of the three businesses are firing on all cylinders right now. All have endured a Covid-19 impact, or other issues, or both. Of course, it’s because there’s a lack of immediate momentum in these businesses that many investors are overlooking them. I think this is short-sighted.

The companies in question are soft drinks firm Britvic (LSE: BVIC), gold miner Centamin (LSE: CEY), and medical products group ConvaTec (LSE: CTEC).

Covid-19 setback

Britvic’s shares reached a high of 1,068p last autumn. They’re currently 30% below that, at 747p.

The company performed strongly last year, with its earnings and dividend increasing by mid-single-digit percentages. Management said: “We fully expect that we will make further progress in 2020”.

The Covid-19 pandemic put paid to that. Big declines in out-of-home consumption have been only partly offset by strong growth in at-home consumption. Analysts expect a 28% fall in earnings, and a similarly reduced dividend.

However, the CEO has said: “Looking further ahead, I am confident that the strong momentum we built up going into the pandemic will return”. I share his confidence.

A healthy bounce-back in earnings and dividends is forecast for fiscal 2021. Trading at 13.9 times the forecast earnings, with a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%, I see this drinks-brands powerhouse as a compelling FTSE 250 recovery stock.

Production setback

Centamin’s business and shares were performing strongly earlier this year. On the back of a higher gold price and production, it reported a 57% increase in first-half revenue and a 280% rise in earnings. Its shares reached a high of 232p in August.

However, last month it announced it was deferring production in one zone of its giant Sukari mine in Egypt. This was due to movement in a localised area of waste material. Subsequently, it revised its 2020 production guidance down to 445,000–455,000 from 510,000–525,000 ounces. Furthermore, it gave 2021 guidance of 400,000–430,000 ounces.

At a current 126p, this FTSE 250 miner’s shares are 46% below their August high. I think the fall is way overdone. At less than 12 times forecast 2021 earnings, and a prospective dividend yield of 6%, I reckon Centamin is another stock capable of delivering high returns for buyers today.

FTSE 250 recovery stock #3

Ahead of the February/March market crash, ConvaTec’s shares were up at 220p. By May, they’d recovered to the same level. However, they’ve since drifted lower, and at a current 195p are 11% off their highs.

The company has a market-leading portfolio of medical devices and technologies for the management of chronic conditions. Demographic trends are supportive for growth, but the company hadn’t really been making the most of its strong position, and there were wholesale management changes last year.

The Covid-19 has had some adverse impact on ConvaTec’s progress under the new management. However, I believe the team’s strategy for the business, the structural backdrop for growth, and a sub-20 multiple of forecast 2021 earnings make this another compelling FTSE 250 recovery stock.

Many highly successful investors, such as Warren Buffett, have used this strategy in the past to make money. 

As such, here are three cheap shares that could be worth adding to your portfolio after the stock market crash. 

Stock market crash bargains

Medical company Convatec (LSE: CTEC) produces essential products for the management of chronic conditions. This gives the business a defensive nature. 

At a time when so many other companies are reporting losses, Convatec is expected to report a healthy profit for 2020. Analysts are forecasting a 43% increase in earnings per share for the year. 

Despite this projection, shares in the healthcare company are currently dealing around 10% below their one-year high. This may suggest they offer a margin of safety after the recent stock market crash. 

Going forward, the company is planning to invest $150m to improve operations. This may lead to larger profit margins and more substantial growth rates in the years ahead. 

As such, now may be a good time to snap up a share of this business after the market crash as its growth starts to pick up. 

Spirent Communications

Spirent Communications (LSE: SPT) may be a great way to play the rollout of 5G networks across the country.

The company believes the world is only a third of the way through what could ultimately be a 12-year 5G cycle. This suggests the demand for its equipment and experience is only really just getting started. 

Analysts are forecasting steady growth for the next few years. If the company’s projection for a multi-year 5G rollout does come to fruition, this growth could last well into the late 2020s, and possibly early 2030s. 

Therefore, Spirent may have many years of growth ahead of it. The stock market crash has presented investors an opportunity to buy into this business at a low price. It might be worth snapping up a share of this telecommunications leader before growth picks up in the next decade.

XP Power

After any stock market crash, buying high-quality shares that produce a niche product or service can be a great strategy. XP Power (LSE: XPP) may fall into this bracket.

XP Power designs power supplies for blue-chip customers. It caters to four primary sectors, semiconductor equipment, technology, industrial, and healthcare.

All of these are relatively defensive sectors. Keeping the power on is essential for many businesses, so they’re unlikely to cancel orders with XP Power. 

As such, now to be a great time to take advantage of the recent stock market crash and buy shares in the company while they trade at a low level.

Analysts are forecasting a double-digit increase in earnings for the group this year, and a similar performance in 2021. That suggests shareholders could see a healthy return on their investment in the years ahead. 

Then I tipped primary healthcare facility developer Assura, but another top healthcare stock has come to my attention again today: FTSE 250-listed Convatec Group (LSE: CTEC). Why? Its share price has soared on signs of improving trading conditions moving into the new year.

Reassuringly solid

On Wednesday ConvaTec — a leading manufacturer of ostomy devices like colostomy bags, as well as wound care products — soared to 12-month peaks after putting out bright business numbers for the three months to September.

Revenues clocked in at $462.9m, up 2.4% year-on-year, or 4.6% on an organic basis and signalling a serious sales uptick in recent months. By comparison, turnover was down 3.5% in the first six months of the year and flat organically.

ConvaTec’s results were flattered by some weak comparators, but even so, those third-quarter numbers sailed past all expectations. Organic growth was reported across all four trading units and ranged from 3% at its Ostomy Care division to a mighty 8% at Continence and Critical Care.

For the first nine months of 2019, ConvaTec’s organic sales were up 1.5%, prompting the business to affirm its full-year growth target of 1% to 2.5%.

The road to recovery

ConvaTec’s latest release is the second robust report in just three months, leading to hopes that it’s finally on the mend after a tumultuous couple of years.

The FTSE 250 firm had warned on profits at the third-quarter stage in both of the previous years, ConvaTec scribbling out its prior forecasts last time out after sales troubles with its biggest Infusion Devices customer, allied with serious difficulties at its Advanced Wound Care division. Then in February, it fell again after advising that it continued to miss its targets.

The release of two solid trading updates on the bounce, showing signs of improving sales momentum, has raised hopes that it has finally turned the corner. And I’d argue that there’s plenty more to be excited about. Recent management changes have seen former Eli Lilly veteran Karim Bitar parachuted in as chief executive to beef up the boardroom. Meanwhile, the launch of its three-year, $150m, transformation scheme launched last winter should help to give sales an extra boot up the backside and deliver significant cost savings.

Bag a beauty

Now, City analysts had been forecasting a 16% earnings slump in 2019 in the run-up to this week’s update, and for another drop — albeit a fractional 1% one — for next year. However, in light of recent news flow, it’s likely that these estimates could receive significant upgrades, and in particular, 2020’s targets as the upcoming year progresses.

Right now, ConvaTec trades on a slightly toppy P/E ratio of 20.3 times for 2020. But I’d argue that given the strong possibility of forecast improvements, the huge potential of its self-help plans, and its excellent long-term sales outlook because of booming healthcare investment the world over all make the business worthy of such a premium. It’s a top buy today, in my opinion.

Fundamentally attractive

ConvaTec is a stock I originally tipped far too soon after it debuted on the stock market in 2016. I’m generally cautious on new arrivals until they’ve built up a record as a publicly-listed company, but I was swayed by CTEC’s market-leading products and technologies for the management of chronic conditions.

The company soon reported a number of operational issues, and the share price suffered as a result. However, I continue to see the business as fundamentally attractive, with ageing populations being a structural driver for growth. The shares have climbed around 50% since I kept faith with the company earlier this year. Events since, including a Q3 trading update today, have persuaded me there’s more to come.

On track

With a new chairman and chief executive, ConvaTec reported a Q3 performance in line with management expectations, and said its transformation initiative is on track. Advanced wound care produced organic revenue growth of 3.6% for the period, and with ostomy care (+3%), continence and critical care (+8%), and infusion devices (+4.3%), there was growth across all franchises.

Management left its guidance for the full-year unchanged. Namely, group organic revenue growth of 1% to 2.5%, and an adjusted EBIT margin of 18% to 20%, including spend associated with the transformation initiative and costs to implement new medical device regulations.

Plans and progress

Highly-rated chief executive Karim Bitar, who joined the company just a month ago, said: “I look forward to giving an update on our plans and progress next year.” I’d expect this to be alongside full-year results in February.

At a share price of around 200p, CTEC trades at 20 times current-year forecast earnings. I’m hopeful Bitar’s plans for growth, an ongoing reduction of debt, and an improving business performance could see the share price continue to head north through 2020.

Portfolio rationalisation

FirstGroup announced its annual results back in May, along with a strategy update for its portfolio of five market-leading public transportation businesses in the UK and North America. It intends to make the latter its core market, centred on its contract-based operations First Student and First Transit. It said a formal sale process is underway for its iconic Greyhound intercity coaches business.

In the UK, it’s pursuing structural alternatives to separate its First Bus operations from the group. The long-term future of its First Rail business isn’t entirely clear yet, as management awaits the outcome of the UK government’s review into the structure of the whole rail industry.

Unlocking value

There’s been no further news on the portfolio rationalisation since the plans were announced in May. Meanwhile, at a share price of 129p, the group, as is, trades at 8.9 times forecast current-year earnings.

I’m convinced management is pursuing a strategy that will ultimately unlock value for investors, and I expect to see the shares rate higher through 2020. We should have an update on the rationalisation of the portfolio as early as the company’s half-year results on 14 November.

Turning itself around

The firm is a “global” medical products and technologies company focused on therapies for the management of chronic conditions, with “leading market positions” in advanced wound care, ostomy care, continence and critical care, and infusion devices. That’s a tick on the checklist for me because I like the sector.

And I was tempted to load up with the stock in February when it hit 120p after plunging 20% on the release of full-year results for 2018. Sadly, I failed to act back then, yet the share price has been steadily rising ever since. And for good reason: the operational recovery seems to be gathering pace.

Executive chairman Rick Anderson said in today’s report that all the firm’s franchises delivered organic growth in revenue in the second quarter. However, he cautioned that there is “more work to do.” Yet he believes the company is “well-positioned” to meet its objectives for the full year. City analysts following ConvaTec expect earnings to lift by a percentage in the high teens for 2019.

We only have to wait until 30 September until incoming chief executive Karim Bitar takes control. I see change at the top as a positive when it comes to turning businesses around. Indeed, Anderson explained that the priority in the second half is to improve execution and Bitar’s fresh eyes and leadership look set to play a big part in that.

Positive change

There’s a lot of positive change happening already in the enterprise though. The firm expects revenue to grow in H2, and part of that will likely be driven by a “more targeted and effective” salesforce in the US wound business along with ongoing recovery in other divisions.

The company invested $14m to establish its “transformation initiative” during the first half, aimed at embedding “more discipline and better execution into the business.” Such investment is set to ramp up in the second half to around $40m for the whole year. I like the sound of that. And if the main issue leading to ConvaTec’s previous multiple profit warnings was one of poor execution, that’s encouraging news too, because such problems are often fixable. If the business model was irreparably broken, or just plain didn’t work, the firm’s turnaround problems would have looked grim. Happily, that’s not the case, it seems.

At the current share price of 183p, the forward-looking price-to-earnings ratio for 2019 sits just below 17 and the anticipated dividend yield is close to 2.5%. Meanwhile, although revenue in the first half came in flat “on an organic basis,” the firm saw “an improving revenue trend” in the second quarter with growth of 2.1%.

I’m optimistic about the company’s forward prospects and would aim to buy into the shares on dips and down-days now.

High drama

Over the last couple of years, Provident Financial’s shareholders have witnessed a catalogue of unwelcome dramas. A bungled attempt to change the operating model of the group’s doorstep lending division, upheaval in the boardroom, investigations by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), a rescue rights issue, fighting off a hostile takeover bid by small-cap upstart Non-Standard Finance — you name it, Provident’s shareholders have probably seen it!

Confidence in recovery

Today’s half-year results will have come as a welcome relief for investors, with adjusted operating profit stable at £74.9m. Exceptional costs were much reduced, despite expenses of £23.6m to stave off Non-Standard Finance’s hostile bid.

Provident delivered strong new business volumes while maintaining stable delinquency rates, and chief executive Malcolm Le May described the results as “in line with our internal plans.” In further good news, he added: “We are pleased to announce reinstatement of an interim dividend of 9p per share, which reflects our confidence in the ongoing recovery of the group.”

With the company also announcing the FCA investigation into its Moneybarn business “is close to being concluded with the expected financial impact within the previously announced financial provisions,” the shares responded positively when the market opened this morning.

Currently trading at 435p — up 4.7% on the day — the stock has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.8, and a prospective dividend yield of 6.2% on a forecast full-year payout of 27p. The firm’s turnaround now looks close to gaining serious momentum, and the current valuation is very attractive, in my opinion. I rate the stock a ‘buy’.

Strong turnaround potential

I made a big mistake in first tipping ConvaTec far too soon after its stock market debut. However, I’ve continued to see value in the stock at lower prices, due to it owning some best-in-class medical devices, notably in ostomy care and wound care.

The last time I wrote about the company in March, the share price was 134p, the forward P/E was 12.5, and the prospective dividend yield was 3.25%. Since then, the company has announced the appointment of its new permanent chief executive and issued a first-quarter trading update.

Karim Bitar, poached from animal genetics specialist Genus, will take up the chief exec role on 30 September. It looks a good appointment as he’s highly regarded for leading transformational change at similar businesses.

Meanwhile, the company’s Q1 results in May were sufficiently encouraging to bolster my view that there’s strong turnaround potential here. The shares are up 15% to 154p since March — forward P/E now 14.8 and prospective dividend yield 2.9% — but I continue to rate the stock a ‘buy’.

In amongst the stocks that deserve to be cheap, I often find a handful of shares that are unloved but good businesses. Potential bargains.

My latest trawl through the FTSE 250 mid-cap index has unearthed three dividend stocks I think offer good value for buyers at current levels.

A turnaround buy?

Medical technology company ConvaTec Group (LSE: CTEC) has been a disappointing performer since its 2016 flotation. Like many such firms, it floated at a demanding valuation that became unsustainable when growth rates disappointed.

Despite this, I think it’s fundamentally an attractive business. ConvaTec makes a range of medical products used in areas such as wound care, ostomy, incontinence and infusion. Many of the firm’s products are disposable or consumable, making them repeat buys for patients and hospitals.

A trading statement on Friday confirmed that growth remains challenging. Sales fell by 2% to $430.6m during the first quarter. However, full-year expectations are unchanged and ConvaTec expects to generate an adjusted operating profit margin of 18%-20% this year — a solid result.

The shares now trade on 12 times forecast earnings and offer a 3.5% dividend yield. With earnings backed by strong cash flows, I think ConvaTec offers decent value at this level.

Retail isn’t dead

Retailers with big high street chains are out of favour at the moment. But in my view there are likely to be some long-term winners in this sector.

One retailer I own myself is Dixons Carphone (LSE: DC). This firm is the UK’s largest retailer of home electricals, computers and mobile phones. It also has significant market share in Scandinavia and Greece.

Sales were steady over the peak Christmas period, and newish chief executive Alex Baldock is working hard to expand online and build a larger customer credit business — a key area of growth.

Consumer demand for the latest gear is still strong and Dixons Carphone’s scale means it can price competitively. In my view, sales are unlikely to collapse unless unemployment or interest rates rise. As far as I can see, there’s no sign of either at the moment.

With the stock trading on seven times forecast earnings and offering a 5.2% dividend yield, I rate this retailer as a buy.

This wheeler-dealer offers a 6% yield

City firm TP ICAP (LSE: TCAP) isn’t exactly a household name. But it is the world’s largest interdealer broker. What this means is that its teams of dealers act as middlemen, negotiating financial deals between clients such as investment banks and oil traders.

The rise of electronic trading has put pressure on this business model, which is changing to include more technology and data services. But TP ICAP’s scale and expansion into the oil market have helped the firm to adapt. Although market conditions can affect the group’s profits, this £1.6bn City firm ended last year with net cash of more than £600m.

The shares have halved in value since the start of 2018 and now trade on 9 times forecast earnings, with a 6% dividend yield. I think this is probably too cheap and would rate the shares as a buy.