For years I’ve been bullish over BP (LSE: BP), which I’ve seen as a top FTSE 100 income stock. For years we’ve been looking at dividend yields of 6% and often even better. So with the BP share price hammered by the Covid-19 pandemic, I should be rushing for the Buy button, right?
Since we started hearing positive vaccine news in November, it looks like plenty of investors have been doing just that. BP shares have gained more than 50% since their low that month. To put that into perspective for potential recovery investors, we’re still looking at a 12-month fall of 36%. So BP is still a long way from getting back to 2019 share price levels.
The oil price is bouncing back too. From lows of around $37–$38 in November 2020, a barrel of Brent crude is now fetching a fraction over $65. I’ve generally considered long-term oil as being sustainable at around $65–$75 per barrel. So I should be happy to invest in the business now when the BP share price is so low, right?
So far I’m ignoring the elephant in the room. That’s the move away from fossil fuels and towards sustainable energy. There’s nothing new here, it’s a trend that’s been going on for a long time. And it’s a trend that I’ve always thought would take a long time to really come to fruition. Many people have steered clear of BP shares precisely because of the increasing pariah status afforded to oil and those who use it. My thinking has been along the lines of “Nah, change will take decades, way beyond my investing horizon“.
All change
But the sustainable energy impetus is gathering strength. And BP’s new strategy, announced last summer, has convinced me I got it wrong. It’s a change of direction that I think could have damaged the BP share price, so timing the revelation to match the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic was possibly a smart move.
BP plans a ten-fold increase in low-carbon investment by 2030, with an eight-fold rise by 2025. I think that’s a pretty ambitious timescale. In addition, the company intends to scale back its carbon-based business. That includes cutting production by 40% by 2030, and lowering emissions from BPs operations by 30%–35%.
Those are noble ambitions, and I fully support them. But what does it mean to shareholders? Well, BP has reset its dividend to 5.25c per quarter. The yield still looks reasonable, largely because of the fallen BP share price. The company also targets 7%–9% EBIDA per share growth to 2025. And it said it will return at least 60% of surplus cash via share buybacks.
BP share price valuation?
That sounds like a reasonable proposition to me, and BP shares might be great value now. But here’s the big killer for me — BP has become a different company. All of my years of following BP, all my oil-based thinking, is worthless now. The BP I knew is no more.
I need to examine BP as a brand new company, and rebase all my expectations. Right now, I have no results from the new BP to go on, so it will take me some time to form my new thoughts. In the meantime, my investment cash will have to go elsewhere.