According to the BBC last Thursday, UK health officials are moving towards the second phase of their response to the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak – the delay phase.
Citing chief medical adviser Prof Chris Whitty, the BBC reported that the government will aim measures at slowing down the spread of the virus. Although what those measures will be remains unclear (at least to me!)
Economic disruption
But one thing seems certain: we’re going to see a lot more economic disruption before COVID-19 eventually fades from public consciousness. This thing looks like being a long job. And casualties such as Flybe, which plunged into administration last week could start piling up.
Indeed, one of the special measures the media and others are talking about is that the government could restrict usage of public transport in an effort to control the virus. That may not happen, of course, but if it does, several publicly-quoted businesses could suffer badly.
For example, I wouldn’t want to be holding shares such as those of Wizz Air, Go-Ahead, Dart, National Express, easyJet and Stagecoach. Those stocks have already dropped, maybe with very good reason and not just because of investor sentiment. It seems to me that all firms in the travel sector face the real possibility of significant disruption to their businesses in the months ahead.
If you are a contrarian-minded investor, you could be interested in scouring the sector for potential bargains, but I’d rather look elsewhere. And my main area of interest would be the shares of companies that I consider to have a high degree of defensiveness in their businesses. In other words, for me, they need to be cash-generative and less susceptible to the ups and downs of the macro-economy than more cyclical shares may be.
Some of the shares I like
I’m thinking of companies such as Unilever, SSE, Smith & Nephew, Sage, Reckitt Benckiser and GlaxoSmithKline to name but a few. I’d keep a close eye on companies like those and be ready to pounce at opportune moments, such as if we see another general downwards lurch in the markets.
One way of thinking about such investments is by leading with the shareholder dividend. I’d ask myself whether it’s sustainable and whether it has the potential to keep rising a little each year. So I’d be considering things like the strength of the incoming stream of cash flow and how much debt the company carries. Indeed, the interest on borrowings is in direct competition with the shareholder dividend for the company’s cash flow!
Am I worried about COVID-19. Yes, on a human level, I am. But I’m still investing and haven’t yet succumbed to the temptation to stock up with extra food. Although I did linger longer than usual at the baked bean shelf on my most recent visit to the supermarket!