‘Tis the season for reflecting on the past year and looking ahead to the coming one.
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Over in the US, the S&P 500 index is up over 25%, as I’m writing. It’s printed multiple record highs through 2021 led by heavyweight tech stocks. Apple has recently been flirting with becoming the world’s first three-trillion-dollar company. Talk about the goose is getting fat!
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Here in the UK, the performance of the FTSE 100 hasn’t been quite as spectacular. But our blue-chip index is just about hanging on to a double-digit gain at the moment. Mind, it remains some way below its pre-pandemic levels.
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And like Jacob Marley, Mr Footsie goes into the new year bearing a weighty chain. One forged by the recent appearance of the Omicron virus variant, surging inflation, and last week’s decision by the Bank of England to hike interest rates to 0.25%.
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Let’s have a look at the outlook for some of the UK’s popular blue-chip stocks.Â
Shell and BP
The FTSE 100 oil giants have made strong gains this year — Shell (+31%) and BP (+37%) — although the shares of both (and the oil price) are currently off their highs. There are some fears the surge in Covid cases could slow, if not derail, the oil-price recovery seen in 2021.
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Still, the recent weakness in Shell and BP’s shares has pushed their forecast 2022 dividend yields up to 4.6% and 5.1% respectively. They look like attractive income stocks to my eye, and have potential for capital gains if the oil-price recovery resumes next year.
Rolls-Royce
The resurgence of Covid has loomed even larger over the recent performance of the shares of airlines and engine-maker Rolls-Royce. At one point, the latter’s shares were up 33% since the start of the year. They’re now up just 3%.
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On the positive side, while there’ll be no dividend for the foreseeable future, a free cash flow (FCF) target of at least £750m — possibly in 2022 but probably 2023 — gives an attractive FCF yield of over 8%. The company has a good bit of work to do if it’s to reach this target, but it’s a credible long-term recovery stock, in my view.
AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline
Like the oil giants, the Footsie’s big pharma groups AstraZeneca (+19%) and GlaxoSmithKline (+26%) have performed well in 2021. They don’t sport as generous forward yields as their oil counterparts — 2.6% and 3.4% respectively — but their businesses are less sensitive to the macro-economic environment.
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AstraZeneca completed its $39bn takeover of Alexion Pharmaceuticals in the third quarter of 2021. It’s not unknown for such mega-deals to give the acquirer a bout of indigestion, and I’ll be watching how the integration progresses in the coming months.
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GlaxoSmithKline is heading the opposite way in 2022, planning to break itself up with a demerger of its consumer healthcare business. Former Tesco boss Dave Lewis has just been appointed chair designate for this business and it looks a good move to me. I’ve long felt a break-up of GSK would unlock value for shareholders and continue to do so.Â
BT
Takeover speculation has surrounded BT through 2021 and it’s shares are up 27% since the start of the year. A recent rumour of interest from India’s Reliance Industries and news that billionaire Patrick Drahi has increased his stake in BT from 12% to 18% have provided the latest fuel for speculation.
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The company reinstated its dividend at the half-year stage and the forward yield is a very decent 4.6%. Dividends, debt obligations and investment for growth will be something of a balancing act. But, like Rolls-Royce, I see BT as a credible long-term recovery stock. A value-unlocking bid for the company — or part of it — can’t be ruled out either.Â
Lloyds
Lloyds has been another market outperformer in 2021. Its shares are up 30% at the moment. They responded positively to the recent Bank of England interest-rate hike, as higher rates generally make for higher profits on banks’ lending activities.
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However, if rate increases were to cut off economic growth in 2022, lower income and higher debts could cast a pall over Lloyds’ performance. On balance though, I see a forecast dividend yield of 5.5% as sufficient to make the stock an attractive one for me to consider as an income-seeker.
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As I’m all set to ensconce myself in a comfy chair by the fire, it only remains for me to wish one and all a happy, healthy and prosperous 2022. Keep it Foolish!
