Why is Argo Blockchain on a downward trajectory?

Argo Blockchain’s share price has had a rocket year, up over 200%. However in recent days, it has fallen over 25%. I dig into what to expect going forward.

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After experiencing triple-digit returns this year, the Argo Blockchain (LSE: ARB) share price has cooled off, dropping over 25% in recent days. On Friday, it fell over 9%. Due to it being a bitcoin mining company, it is natural to look at the bitcoin price when we see a fall in the share price of Argo Blockchain. So, what happened to the bitcoin price and what other reasons caused this fall in the share price?

Bitcoin fall

On Friday, the bitcoin price fell 8%, briefly falling below $41,000, after the news that China planned to ban all cryptocurrencies, including transactions and mining. This crackdown on the popular cryptocurrency caught the market by surprise and severely undermines bitcoin’s ability to be used as an alternative currency. Some speculate that the ban could be linked to the Chinese communist party introducing a digital yuan in the near future.

This ban has direct implications for Argo Blockchain. In August, the mining company produced 206 bitcoins and had 501 bitcoins in reserve. A drop in bitcoin price means that its holdings are worth a lower amount and mining capabilities less valuable. 

On the other hand, some say the ban could be a net positive for the firm. It is estimated 46% of bitcoin mining is operated in China right now. With mining becoming illegal, mining capabilities will need to move to other countries. Therefore, this could be the perfect opportunity for Argo Blockchain to ramp up production and take market share.

Other reasons for the fall

Argo Blockchain will public on the NASDAQ later today, raising $112.5 million in the process. Shares will be priced at $15 and will trade under the ARBK ticker. In my opinion, the IPO is well calculated and a brilliant opportunity to raise awareness of the firm whilst funding critical expansion plans.

However, this is not good news for UK investors, hence the share price drop. When a company raises money through an IPO or offering, existing shareholders receive a small piece of the pie, therefore making their shares worth a lower amount.

Bottom line

The Friday fall was due to a combination of the Chinese ban on cryptocurrency and the US IPO. In my opinion, the Chinese ban is a net positive for Argo Blockchain, allowing it to take market share, albeit at a likely lower bitcoin price. As for the US IPO, if the company uses the IPO proceeds carefully and expands its mining operations, the IPO could reward long-term investors with a higher future share price.

As for my portfolio, I am keeping a close eye on this company. If it can continue executing and building new plants, it may soon be an addition to my portfolio. For now, it is too speculative.

RISK WARNING: should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice. The Motley Fool believes in building wealth through long-term investing and so we do not promote or encourage high-risk activities including day trading, CFDs, spread betting, cryptocurrencies, and forex. Where we promote an affiliate partner’s brokerage products, these are focused on the trading of readily releasable securities.

Harry Godfrey has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

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