Taylor Wimpey (LSE: TW) and other housebuilders had been recovering well since November, when UK stocks started on their vaccine rebound. And 2021 got off to a good start. But since April, the Taylor Wimpey share price has been falling back. What might drive it in June, and where is it likely to go?
The situation is similar at Barratt Developments (LSE: BDEV) and Persimmon (LSE: PSN). Both have been drifting back a bit over the past couple of months, but not to the same extent as Wimpey. Since the start of 2021, Taylor Wimpey shares are up around 5.5%. But the other two are showing double-digit growth.
The long term is what counts, so what about the past five years? The Taylor Wimpey share price is actually down over the period, by 4%. Barratt, meanwhile, has gained 40%. And Persimmon shareholders are sitting on a 60% profit. But back to June, and I see a few things that I reckon could drive these three shares in either direction.
First up comes rising house prices. According to Nationwide, UK house prices were up 10.9% on the year to May. That surely had a lot to do with the early 2021 housebuilder recovery. But I remain cautious. The short-term market reaction to lockdown easing doesn’t really say anything about the long-term direction of the housing market. And housebuilders don’t need rising prices to make their profits anyway.
Taylor Wimpey share price drivers
A decision on the full relaxation of Covid restrictions is scheduled for 21 June. Doubts are growing about the feasibility, as the new Delta variant is spreading. I suspect we’ve already seen the negative effect of that uncertainty, though. And I can’t help feeling it’s already in the latest Barratt Developments, Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey share prices.
What about positive drivers? We’re not due any substantial news from Taylor Wimpey until first-half results in August. But Persimmon should be providing us with a trading update on 8 July. And there’s a similar update from Barratt scheduled for 14 July.
Those might appear too late to affect June share prices, but I’m not so sure. We often see prices move in anticipation of updates. That’s especially true if the background market for a stock is looking positive, and the housing market is strong right now. I can see the optimism continuing, even if Covid restrictions are retained for a bit longer. When we finally get away from the pandemic effect, what’s the state of housing in the UK going to look like? Oh yes, we’re still in that chronic housing shortage.
Housing shortage
For that reason alone, I’m bullish about the Taylor Wimpey share price. And Barratt Developments too. Oh, and Persimmon, which I hold in my long-term portfolio. I might still be wrong, mind. And the pre-pandemic levels reached by housebuilder shares might have been overvalued. If that’s the case, I suppose we could be heading for a correction.
But while there’s demand in excess of supply, and housebuilders are earning enough cash to pay me my dividends, it’s a sector I’m staying in.