Coinbase IPO: should I buy the shares?

The much anticipated Coinbase IPO is finally here. Harshil Patel considers these crypto exchange shares.

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The Coinbase IPO is set to take place on Wednesday 14 April. The highly anticipated initial public offering will take place through a direct listing on the US Nasdaq index under the ticker symbol ‘COIN’.

Coinbase IPO: Nasdaq’s first major direct listing

As a direct listing, the company will float its shares on the stock exchange without hiring investment banks to underwrite the transaction. Also unlike a traditional IPO, the Coinbase IPO won’t be raising additional funds.

The precise timing of the listing isn’t clear. As an example, the big data company Palantir did a direct listing in September, and its shares first started trading several hours after the market opened.  

Nasdaq gave Coinbase a reference price of $250 a share. This values the company at around $65bn. The nature of a direct listing means it’s difficult to know at what price the shares will trade.

Coinbase is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US. Users can buy, sell, send, receive, and exchange cryptocurrencies. CEO Brian Armstrong founded the company in 2012. Users of the platform mainly deal in Bitcoin and Ethereum, but the platform offers many other cryptocurrencies. 

Strong growth metrics

There are some things I particularly like about the Coinbase IPO. Regardless of polarising views on cryptocurrencies, Coinbase recently reported impressive business metrics. It now has 56m users, an increase of 30% since the end of 2020 and 75% since the end of 2019.

Its revenue soared to $1.8bn for the first three months of 2021. This is significantly above the $1.27bn it achieved for the whole of 2020. The majority of revenues are generated from transaction fees from buying and selling cryptocurrencies on the platform. Its double-digit profit margins are equally as impressive, in my opinion.

Risks ahead

Despite strong recent growth, there are a number of risks ahead. Much depends on the uptake of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has seen a surge in the past year that has even attracted institutional money and companies like Tesla. But cryptocurrencies are volatile and speculative. Any loss of interest could have a significant negative impact on exchanges including Coinbase.

Competition is another concern. New exchanges are launched frequently and can become large very quickly. For instance, Binance is the world’s largest platform but it was only founded in 2017.

As a relatively young industry that has potential wider ramifications for financial markets, regulation is another key risk. Some countries like India are looking at banning digital currencies. And earlier this year, US treasury secretary Janet Yellen warned that the government may need to “curtail” their use.

Valuation is another big concern for me. Although a reference share price is given, I won’t know its actual price and therefore its valuation until it starts trading.

So, investing in the Coinbase IPO is not for the faint-hearted and comes with risk attached. In particular, the first day of trading could be extremely volatile. For this reason, I won’t be investing any time soon and would much rather wait for signs of stability to reassess. Until then, there are several other US growth stocks I’d look at instead.

RISK WARNING: should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice. The Motley Fool believes in building wealth through long-term investing and so we do not promote or encourage high-risk activities including day trading, CFDs, spread betting, cryptocurrencies, and forex. Where we promote an affiliate partner’s brokerage products, these are focused on the trading of readily releasable securities.

Harshil Patel owns shares in Tesla. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended Bitcoin and Tesla. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of Palantir Technologies Inc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

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