For years, I’ve liked Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR), but I’ve never got around to buying. Whenever the time came for me to make an investment, Rolls never quite made the top of my list. Maybe the Rolls-Royce share price looked a bit too high at the time. Or, more usually, there’s just something else I liked better.
Warren Buffett famously spoke of investing in Gillette, and the warm feeling he got every morning when he thought of the millions around the world shaving with a new blade. I’ve always had similar feelings watching airline departures and arrivals. And thinking of all those lucrative maintenance contracts bringing in the cash for Rolls-Royce.
But no comparison is perfect. Chins are still being shaved around the world during Covid lockdown. But the planes aren’t flying, and the Rolls-Royce share price has suffered. We’ve seen a modest climb this week though. Since market close last Friday, Rolls-Royce shares are up 8%, as I write. But I’d never make an investment decision based solely on short-term share price moves. And the bigger picture isn’t so pretty.
Feeling bullish
We’re close to a year on from the start of the Covid-19 stock market crash. And, in that year, the Rolls-Royce share price has fallen 58%. But it had been slipping even before that. Over the past two years, Rolls-Royce shares are down 70%. So we’re looking at a pandemic catastrophe on top of an existing downward trend. So why am I starting to feel positive towards the stock?
Well, my reason is essentially that I still see the long-term business as sound. When Rolls-Royce will get back to profit, I really can’t guess. And I still expect the rest of 2021 to be rocky for the Rolls-Royce share price.
Then there’s the huge amount of debt the company’s had to take on, amounting to around £4bn now. That will have to be addressed some day. But, for now, the key question is whether Rolls will make it through the rest of this crunch year.
The firm’s latest update at the end of January essentially said things are in line with expectations. Rolls expects free cash outflow of around £2bn in 2021, and I could see a few eyes watering at the prospects of that. But at the end of 2020, the company had around £9bn in liquidity — which it described as “at the upper end of the previously guided range.”
Rolls-Royce share price cheap?
Rolls-Royce is hoping for an upturn in the aviation business in the second half of the year. And that’s where I think the big risk lies. The Covid vaccination programme is progressing reasonably well. But there almost seems to be a new virus variant every week. And the government is still urging against booking fly-away holidays just yet.
Still, with the Rolls-Royce share price around £1, or less, I really am tempted to buy. But I still don’t know whether I will. Again, it’ll depend on what other options might look more promising when the time for my next purchase comes along.