Have you been waiting for a rebound in Bitcoin? Are you aiming to catch the next surge to $20,000 or more, like the one we saw in 2017? Well, it could be happening. Read on to find out more.
Since the beginning of 2019, Bitcoin has moved around 50% higher. Suddenly, it seems, the long downtrend has reversed direction. And it’s not the only cryptocurrency to have powered up this year. Ether is almost 70% up from its early January nadir and Ripple is around 30% higher as I write. Maybe the whole ‘asset’ class is back in vogue with speculators.
When is an asset actually an asset?
But I think the main problem with Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies is that they’ve got very little going for them in terms of what makes them an asset. I know, for example, that if I invest or speculate on shares they will be backed by an underlying company. The company will almost always own a business and have some tangible assets such as property, plant and equipment, and maybe some intangible assets such as intellectual property too. The assets will help to generate profits, which can be ploughed back into generating more assets, or paid as dividends, and the share price will often move higher as the expansion continues.
Sometimes, speculation can drive company share prices even higher on top of the operational momentum created by the business. And with shares, I can read valuation indicators such as price-to-book ratios, price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields to help me make a judgement about how a share price reflects the underlying value of the assets and the business.
However, with Bitcoin, there’s precious little driving the price other than speculation. All I can say is that Bitcoin once traded near $20,000, but it also traded below $200 just four short years ago. Which way will it go from here? Back up to £20,000 for a 300% gain, or back down to $200 for a 96% loss? You may as well toss a coin because I think that speculating on Bitcoin today has similar probabilities.
A third potential way
But there’s a third potential outcome. Bitcoin could wiggle up and down for years doing nothing much more than moving sideways. If you hang on through a long move like that your ‘investment’ will gradually lose spending power as inflation leaches the value from your money. In similar situations with shares, we often have a regular dividend income from the underlying business, which helps to compensate, but there’s no such luxury with Bitcoin.
I wouldn’t risk my hard-earned on Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency today, but I would invest in shares and share-backed investments on the stock market. Over the long haul, and in many cases over the short term, I reckon the returns from shares could outpace those from Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies.