Any change is difficult. And the scale of the change that Britain leaving the EU represents could mean a traumatic few years for these small islands of ours.
This has been a vote that has torn the UK in two, setting young against old and rich against poor. And it has decimated our political elites. But I’m optimistic that we can make something from this. Because with every disruptive change comes the opportunity to reinvent ourselves, to start afresh and make things better.
I’m optimistic about Brexit
That’s why I am taking the positives from this momentous decision. And there definitely are positives. It has been over two weeks since the Brexit vote and, you know what, my stock market investments are actually up. And not by a small amount, but by over 10%. That’s a rapid rise.
The FTSE 100 has risen since the vote. It’s jumped to nearly 6,600 points. Remarkably, that’s the high point for the year, and the level I predicted the stock market would reach by year-end. That’s not bad for a country that’s apparently on the brink of recession.
What’s more, I’m confident there will be no recession. This is a country that’s actually booming, and it will continue to boom. The employment rate is at record levels, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this month’s jobs numbers show another rise in the number of people in work in this country.
Weak pound makes UK more competitive
Commentators have noted that the pound has tumbled in value, and they’ve looked on it as a bad thing. But I don’t think it is. As much as the pound may seem like a national virility symbol, a weak pound means good news for companies that export to overseas markets.
And for investors, it means that the FTSE 100 rises, as company competitiveness has improved, and their overseas investments also go up, as the relative value of shares held in countries such as China and India increases.
Remember Black Wednesday in the 1990s? It was the point at which the pound fell out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism, after it came under attack from speculators. The high interest rates that were used to keep Britain in the ERM up to that point caused a recession. But many have said it was actually a ‘Golden Wednesday’, because the weak pound paved the way for the economic boom that came in the late 90s.
That’s why I think falls in domestic shares such as the housebuilders and the banks have been overdone and, rather than investors being forced to flee from these stocks, it has opened up buying opportunities.
When I check the job websites I see post after post advertised. I see the roads and the railways packed to the rafters with busy commuters. Wherever I look, new buildings are going up. To me it’s clear, the UK is still very much open for business, and companies and share prices will continue to do well.