Today I’m running the rule over three recent Footsie risers.
All that glisters…
Precious metals play Randgold Resources (LSE: RRS) enjoyed a stellar rise last week thanks to further gold price strength.
And the digger has maintained this solid momentum in Monday trade, a breakthrough £67.10 per share taking it to within a whisker of fresh three-and-a-half-year highs.
Bullion prices are gaining as Brexit-related risk aversion — combined with enduring fears over Chinese and US economic growth — has seen investors piling into safe-haven assets. On top of this, gold is also benefitting from fresh weakness in the dollar.
But while these factors could continue to support metal prices, I believe gold’s medium-term outlook remains on unsteady ground. The likelihood of Federal Reserve rate hikes in the coming months could easily send the precious metal toppling again. And of course demand from key physical markets China and India continues to sink.
I reckon a prospective P/E rating of 34.2 times makes Randgold Resources far too expensive given gold’s muddy price picture.
Zinc zinger
Zinc giant Vedanta Resources (LSE: VED) also received a welcome bump during last Monday-Friday.
The company has been buoyed by zinc prices surging to their highest since summer 2015, while a bounce in other key commodities like oil and aluminium has also helped Vedanta’s fortunes.
Still, the chronic state of oversupply across many of Vedanta’s markets means that severe price reversals could be just around the corner, in my opinion.
Sure, supply problems may leave zinc’s price prospects in better shape than those of many other raw materials. However, the threat of a Chinese economic ‘hard landing’ — along with the prospect of a recovering US dollar — still leaves Vedanta standing on thin ice.
The City expects Vedanta to keep nursing losses through to the close of next year at the earliest. And I wouldn’t like to bet on a solid bottom-line recovery occurring any time soon.
Set to sink?
Likewise, I reckon Premier Oil (LSE: PMO) could also find itself on the defensive sooner rather than later.
The fossil fuels giant leapt last week as the Brent index barged through the $52-per-barrel marker for the first time since November.
But these rises are the result of fevered speculative buying rather than a reflection of sound fundamentals. Indeed, production data from OPEC and Russia continues to be a worry, while there are growing signs that US producers are slowly getting back to work after stoppages earlier this year.
The prospect of a prolonged — and heavy — supply crude market imbalance, not to mention the obvious operational problems associated with oil exploration and production, makes Premier Oil a risk too far in my opinion. Indeed, the City expects the driller to also endure further losses through to the close of 2017, and I wouldn’t bet on a solid bottom-line recovery thereafter.