Time to take a bite?
Is takeaway ordering service Just Eat (LSE: JE) the new Rightmove? Shares in the tech firm are down by 16% this year but have climbed 8% today, after management increased earnings guidance for this year from £98-100m to £102-104m.
Just Eat said that like-for-like sales rose by 41% during the first quarter, while total sales were 57% higher than during the same period last year.
The firm also said that it had increased the commission rate it charges UK takeaways by 1% in April. At the same time, the company increased the frequency with which it pays restaurants the money they are owed from twice monthly to weekly. The firm says “the initial response to these changes has been positive”.
These changes suggest to me that Just Eat’s customers (takeaway restaurants) depend on Just Eat for an increasing share of their business. They now have no choice but to accept commission rate increases without much complaint.
Just Eat now trades on about 40 times 2016 forecast earnings. This isn’t cheap, but with a PEG ratio of less than 1, Just Eat could still be a profitable growth buy.
Too late for this gold miner?
Egypt-based gold miner Centamin (LSE: CEY) has climbed by 94% so far this year, thanks to a 21% rise in the price of gold.
Centamin’s share price edged 3% higher today after it said that gold production rose by 6% to 125,268 ounces during the first quarter of the year. All-in sustaining cash costs, the most complete measure of the total cost of mining and producing, are expected to be $900 per ounce this year.
With gold currently trading at $1,296 an counce, Centamin should deliver strong profits this year. The firm has no debt and does not hedge any of its gold production, so the rising gold price will feed straight through to Centamin’s profits.
The only problem is that Centamin shares are starting to look quite pricey. This stock now trades on 17 times 2016 forecast earnings and 20 times 2017 forecast earnings. This year’s gains also mean that the expected dividend yield is just 1.6%.
In my view, the shares remain a hold, but it may be too late to buy.
Is the tide turning?
German airline Lufthansa said this morning that it will scale back its plans for capacity growth. In its Q1 results last week, British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines Group said it too would moderate its growth plans.
If the airline industry has reached the end of its long-running growth cycle and is heading into a slowdown, then then outlook for airplane leasing firm Avation (LSE: AVAP) could become uncertain.
Avation issued a brief update today confirming that its fleet utilisation is currently 100%, with an average remaining lease term of 6.4 years. Avation has experienced management but has not won over the City — Avation shares trade on just 8.8 times forecast earnings, falling to 5.7 for 2017.
One reason for this is probably Avation’s net debt of $409m. Although this is covered by the value of its fleet and other fixed assets, any reduction in fleet utilisation could make it hard for Avation to generate a profit after debt costs.
In my view, the balance between risk and potential reward isn’t very attractive, so I’m staying clear for now.