Could SkyePharma PLC Outperform Shire PLC And Hikma Pharmaceuticals Plc?

Shares in small-cap pharmaceutical firm SkyePharma (LSE: SKP) popped 5% higher this morning, after the firm said that sales had risen by 19% during the first half of 2015 and that underlying trading for 2015 is expected to be “ahead of previous expectations”.

The firm said that in-market sales of its flagship new product, flutiform, were up by 129% compared to the same period last year. Sales of flutiform are now expected to be ahead of expectations during the second half of 2015 thanks to a recent increase in manufacturing capacity.

In total, 65% of SkyePharma’s revenue now comes from products launched since March 2012. This highlights the growth potential and long expected life of the firm’s current product range.

First-half earnings of 8.7p per share are exactly 50% of current full-year forecasts for earnings of 15.4p per share. On this basis, any improvement in the second half will see the firm beating current expectations, as promised.

What about the competition?

Investors looking for profitable and established pharma stocks will probably have SkyePharma on their radar. The firm’s shares have fallen by 15% so far this year, despite, evidence of strong operational progress.

Two larger alternatives which both have a focus on growth are Shire (LSE: SHP) and Hikma Pharmaceuticals (LSE: HIK). Could SkyePharma’s smaller size enable it to outperform these peers over the next year or two?

Here’s how the three firms compare at the moment:

SkyePharma’s forecast P/E is expected to fall sharply in 2016. This indicates that earnings per share are expected to rise rapidly next year. Today’s results suggest that momentum is building across the SkyePharma’s product range, so this doesn’t seem an unreasonable expectation, to me.

All three firms boast a strong balance sheet, with low levels of debt or net cash. SkyePharma looks the strongest, with net cash of £20.9m. However, this theoretical advantage is probably outweighed by Shire and Hikma’s’ larger size, which gives them much more affordable and reliable access to debt markets.

Could things change?

Shire’s earnings per share are expected to fall this year after a bumper performance in 2014. However, the FTSE 100 firm is hoping to negotiate a deal to merge with US-listed firm Baxalta Incorporated.

After being rebuffed in private by Baxalta’s management, Shire made the proposal public at the start of August, in the hope that Baxalta’s shareholders would apply pressure to their board to begin negotiations with Shire.

Shire’s initial proposal is for an all-share merger that would create a business Shire believes could generate $20bn of annual sales by 2020. For comparison, Shire is expected to report sales of $6.4bn in 2015.

There’s no certainty of a deal at this point, but for Shire shareholders this is worth keeping an eye on, as it could boost long-term earnings growth.

Today’s best buy?

I wouldn’t rule out continued strong growth from Hikma and Shire, but I believe SkyePharma has the potential to outperform both firms over the next years, and rate the smaller company as a buy.