Sin stocks like Diageo (LSE: DGE) (NYSE: DEO.US) and SABMiller (LSE: SAB) have a long history of outperforming the market and delivering above-average shareholder returns.
In this article, I’m going to compare Diageo and SABMiller, along with Irn Bru maker A.G. Barr (LSE: BAG), to see which looks the better buy in today’s market.
1. Profit and dividend growth
How fast have earnings per share (eps) and dividend risen at each firm over the last five years?
| Â |
Diageo |
SABMiller |
AG Barr |
|
5-year average eps growth |
7.7% |
6.5% |
5.9% |
|
5-year average dividend growth |
6.3% |
9.1% |
7.4% |
There are some slight differences, but the picture is clear: earnings growth has been significantly above inflation, and shareholders have enjoyed a dividend income that’s risen in real terms.
2. How profitable?
All three of these companies trade at a premium valuation, and have done for many years. One of the main reasons for this is that they are very profitable, as these figures show:
|
2014/15 |
Diageo |
SABMiller |
AG Barr |
|
Operating margin |
22.8% |
20.5% |
16.1% |
|
Return on capital employed |
11.1% |
10.9% |
21.1% |
The differences here are interesting: while Diageo and SABMiller both boast superior operating margins, Barr’s superior return on capital employed (ROCE) suggests it may ultimately be a better business for shareholders. ROCE measures the return on shareholder fund and debts generated by a business. A return in excess of 20% is impressive.
3. What’s next?
We’ve seen how these three drinks firms have performed over the last five years, but what about the future?
Currency headwinds and slowing emerging market growth have impacted on Diageo and SABMiller’s performance, while Barr’s UK focus has helped it maintain momentum as our economy has started to recover.
These trends look likely to continue over the next two years, based on the latest City forecasts:
| Â |
Diageo |
SABMiller |
AG Barr |
|
2015/16 forecast eps growth |
-7.5% |
+6.3% |
+9.5% |
|
2016/17 forecast eps growth |
+9.1% |
+4.4% |
+7.4% |
I remain bullish on Barr: although the firm warned this week that price deflation in the UK could put pressure on revenue growth, I don’t believe this will derail Barr’s attractive long-term story.
Today’s best buy
Barr has one other advantage over its two larger peers — it has net cash, whereas both SABMiller and Diageo are burdened with high levels of debt. These firms’ high profit margins have meant that this hasn’t been a problem historically, but it is an additional risk.
All three companies trade on a forecast P/E of about 20 and offer prospective yields of between 2% and 3% — these aren’t cheap stocks.
However, I believe that all three should continue to deliver solid returns for investors, thanks to their strong brands and the sticky nature of their products — people are loyal to their favoured drinks.