Insurance is funny business. It’s also a paradox of sorts. At one level the insurance company does its best to get you out of trouble if/when you find yourself in a pickle. On the other hand, the entire business model is designed to ensure that the insurer is better off (financially) than its customers.
The reason the concept as a whole works is based on risk. If your house was destroyed by a natural disaster, for instance, you could be ruined financially. It’s a risk customers of insurance companies aren’t willing to take.
So, if the company — ultimately — wins out, why not get behind it? Well, you might decide not to if management is underperforming or if the insurer has a terrible track record, but let me outline why Aviva (LSE: AV) (NYSE: AV.US) is a company that you might want to back.
Financial performance
After tax, it made a £2 billion profit last financial year. That’s against a £2.9 billion loss the previous year. The profitability of Aviva’s general insurance business decreased slightly to 97.3% (2012: 97.0% — a figure below 100 indicates profitability) but remains sound.
The board is pushing hard on a restructuring or turnaround programme. Analysts have mentioned that despite not seeing any real fruit from this turnaround project, they’re genuinely impressed by management’s commitment to it. Despite disappointment from analysts, you’d have to be impressed by some of the cost reductions Aviva has achieved: integration and restructuring costs were 21% lower during the past financial year; operating expenses were also down 7%. Overall the board has indicated it would like to deliver a £400 million reduction in expenses. From what I’ve seen it should get there.
Bottom line: revenues fell over 20% during the period, so you can see why the cost-cutting agenda is in full swing. Impressively, Aviva produced a profit margin of a little over 3%. Aviva has room to improve and it knows it.
Microeconomic theme
If you look around the world, the story is much the same. Companies are struggling for earnings growth of more than 3-4%. Cutting costs to boost profitability has become the norm. Aviva’s clearly committed to this aspect of the business. My concern is that the income generators of the business will be lacking in the years to come. Management argue things are looking up — I have no reason to doubt them.
Outlook
It’s the old hip-pocket nerve — the pain of financial sacrifice. Aviva deserves a star for its commitment. Some 400 senior people at Aviva did not get a pay rise last year. No executives received bonuses in 2012, either. I might be old-fashioned but I think that produces incentives for employees to work harder in order to boost profitability. And on that front there is hope. The value of new business increased 13% last financial year — primarily driven by France, Asia, Poland and the UK.
When you combine Aviva’s metrics with commentary from management, I think things start to become a little clearer. The stock’s on a price earnings multiple of 14 times. Its earnings per share is 0.3, and it has a dividend yield of a little over 3%. The line from management: “Have we unlocked the full potential at Aviva? No, there is more to come.”. I suspect that’s probably true.
Don’t expect Aviva to shoot the lights out, but it could be a quiet performer in the market over the medium term. Just look at the dividend forecast: 24 analysts covering the company expect dividends of 0.17p for the upcoming fiscal year, an increase of over 11%, according to the Financial Times. That works for me.